Does Faster Pitching Velocity Limit Stolen Bases?

Credit: Pebble Hunting

INTRODUCTION - Does Faster Pitching Velocity Limit Stolen Bases?

Limiting stolen bases from first to second base, and second to third base is important for pitchers to not allow runners to get into scoring position and bring home a run for the opposing team. Controlling the "run game" is a crucial aspect for pitchers across all levels, and this can be done by being quick to the the plate (time from pitching motion start to when ball hits catcher's glove), varying your looks towards baserunners, picking off to the base, and throwing a good pitch for the catcher to receive and then throw to a specified base.

This Curveball Chronicles study, with data from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference, will aim to justify if another component, pitching velocity, matters in limiting stolen bases for a pitcher and/or helping a catcher throw out a runner easier.

Hypothesis: If a Major League Baseball pitcher throws at a harder fastball velocity, then they will have less stolen bases allowed, and more runners caught stealing.

DATA

The major CAVEAT to this study is not including the average time to the plate a pitcher possesses. This is simply because this data is not readily available across the internet. As described earlier, a pitcher's average time to the plate starts when they begin their pitching motion and ends when the ball hits the catcher's mitt. Including this data, which would vary from pitcher to pitcher depending on their motion, would give us a further look into how harder fastball velocity could limit stolen bases. This is due to the fact that a pitcher who throws hard, but has a slower time to the plate could give up more stolen bases than a pitcher who doesn't throw as hard, but has a quicker time to the plate. Then, the time to the plate could overcome the difference in miles per hour.

The following table shows the 21 hardest throwing pitchers in terms of fastball velocity for the 2024 MLB season. (Pitchers only in the 97th percentile and above in terms of FB Vel. covered)

The number under FB Vel. are percentile rankings, meaning the pitchers in the 100th percentile throw harder than 100% of MLB players, pitchers in 97th percentile throw harder than 97% of MLB players, and so on.

The Extension column represents numbers that are the percentile ranking of how many feet off the mound on average a pitcher releases their pitch. Mason Miller's 78th percentile ranking means he releases the ball 78% further down the mound than all other MLB pitchers. This variable was included to see if how far or close a pitcher releases the baseball matters in controlling the run game, however no further studying was done on this variable.

Innings Pitched are the total number of innings a pitcher threw in the 2024 MLB season. Stolen Bases are how many bases opposing players stole off the pitcher, and Caught Stealing are how many baserunners the catcher throws out after receiving the ball from the pitcher.

SB/9 is the number of stolen bases per nine innings that a pitcher has given up. This is calculated by taking the number of SB allowed divided by the total number of innings pitched, then multiplying that number by 9.

CS/9 is the number of runners caught stealing per nine innings that a pitcher has given up. This is calculated by taking the number of CS divided by the total number of innings pitched, then multiplying that number by 9.

This table takes a look at the 16 pitchers who are in the 50th and 51st percentiles in terms of fastball velocity. These pitchers are meant to be the control group to compare the hard throwing pitchers against. The 50th and 51st percentiles represent "average fastball velocity" in this study, and thus are the baseline of velocity vs SB and CS in the Major Leagues.

NOTE: There are some pitchers who have not pitched as many innings as others, typically they're younger and/or rookies, and there are some players who have given up 0 stolen bases and have 0 runners caught stealing. These players were still included as the view is that they still represent the "hard-throwing" and "control" groups, despite their numbers being from not as big of a sample size as others. While this could potentially skew the data, important insights can still be drawn from the numbers.

RESULTS

For the hard-throwing pitchers group (97th percentile FB Vel. and above), the average stolen bases per nine innings (SB/9) is 0.723, and the average runners caught stealing per nine innings (CS/9) is 0.205.

For the control group of pitchers in the 50th and 51st percentile in terms of fastball pitching velocity, the average stolen bases per nine innings (SB/9) is 0.768, and the average runners caught stealing per nine innings (CS/9) is 0.175.

Therefore, this proves the hypothesis "If a Major League Baseball pitcher throws at a harder fastball velocity, then they will have less stolen bases allowed, and more runners caught stealing." From the data, hard throwing pitchers allow less stolen bases per nine innings (0.723 < 0.768), and get more runners caught stealing per nine innings (0.205 > 0.175). Both of these comparatives are better and what pitchers and coaches want to see in helping to limit the run game.

CONCLUSION

This Curveball Chronicles study into the data behind hard velocity pitchers versus the control group, or average velocity, pitchers has showcased that the extra miles per hour a pitcher has when throwing a fastball does in fact help limit stolen bases at a better rate. Theoretically, the harder velocity means the ball will get to the plate quicker, giving the catchers a better chance to throw out the runners, resulting in a caught stealing. This could make the coaches, 1st base coach, and runners less likely to steal also knowing the pitcher and catcher battery makes it hard for runners to steal bases successfully.

In totality, this question is impossible to answer accurately because of the situational game baseball is, and all the other factors that could affect the dynamic between pitchers, catchers, other fielders, and the baserunner.

In conclusion, a future study could be on the horizon expanding further on the question: "Does Faster Pitching Velocity Limit Stolen Bases?" By utilizing average time to plate for pitchers and then analyzing a hard throwing group versus control group again to see how this extra component affects the data and insights of pitchers effectively controlling the run game.