Statistical Analysis into Spencer Strider (9/13/2023)

Introduction

Spencer Strider is a right-handed pitcher on the Atlanta Braves from Columbus, Ohio. The 6-0 ft, 195 lb Clemson product was drafted in the 4th round of the 2020 June Amateur Draft (Baseball Reference).

Strider would have quick ascension throughout the minors rising all the way from Low-A ball to the Majors in 2021. He would go onto post a cumulative 3.64 ERA in 96.1 total innings, posting a 14.3 K/9.

In Strider's rookie 2022 campaign, he put together a 11-5 win-loss record with a 2.67 ERA in 131.2 innings pitched. He also reached the 200 strikeout mark notching 202 strikeouts with an impressive 13.8 K/9. These efforts led to the right-hander being named second in the Nation League Rookie of the Year voting.

As of September 13th, Strider's 2023 has been electric. He leads the league with 250 strikeouts and an outstanding 13.9 K/9. Also being named an All-Star for the first time, Strider has an 3.83 ERA in 162.0 innings, which has given him the nod of being the Braves' ace in an already talented roster.

Below is Strider's stats from his minors 2021 season all the way to his current MLB 2023 season:

What is particularly eye-popping is his strikeouts and K/9 stats. Strider made history in 2022 by becoming the fastest pitcher to 200 strikeouts, achieving the feat in 130.1 innings (House That Hank Built). This beat the record previously held by Randy Johnson who threw 200 Ks in 130.2 IP. In 2023, Strider has not slowed down one bit. The Braves' ace currently leads the AL and NL with 250 strikeouts (the next closest being Kevin Gausman with 217 strikeouts). His absurd 13.9 K/9 also leads the Majors among all qualified starters, with only Blake Snell and Kevin Gausman coming close to him with a 11.7 K/9.

Take a look into the Slow Motion mechanics of Strider to get a glimpse on potentially why he is so effective (Credit to Paradigm Pitching):

Deep Dive Into Baseball Savant

Looking into Strider's Baseball Savant page, his highest percentile rankings are that he is in the 99th percentile in K % and Whiff % (meaning he ranks above 99% of MLB pitchers this season in those respective categories). This aligns with his stat lines above of posting a career regular-season 13.7 K/9, which is due to the fact that a high whiff percentage paired with an average fastball velocity of 97.3 mph and Chase % of 34.6%.

To dive into the Run Value rankings of Strider we need to first understand what Run Value is. Basically, with each pitch thrown, a respective value is given to the pitch on whether it is a ball or strike, and depending what count it is in. Balls correlate to negative values and strikes correlate to positive values. Then, the cumulative score of all the pitches a pitcher throws is added up throughout his innings in a game/season to a total value. To learn more, please watch Simple Sabermetrics' YouTube video which gives the full explanation of Run Value.

The higher the positive value, the better, as Strider's 15 Pitching Run Value ranks in the 87th percentile out of all MLB pitchers so far this season. While his average fastball velocity is superb, the Fastball Run Value of his main pitch ranks below average with a -1 value. So, from the 1,587 fastballs he's thrown in his outings in 2023, the total cumulative score adds up to a -1 value. However, while Strider is unique in the MLB as he only has three pitches in his arsenal as a starter, his breaking ball/slider is devastating and one of the main reasons why he racks up the strikeouts. His slider, has a run value of 12 and ranks in the 96th percentile, which is crucial to explaining how Strider is so effective. Having a top-quality secondary pitch is essential to succeed in the Majors. While most other starters have 4-5 pitches in their arsenal, Strider has done extremely well with his three-pitch mix of a 4-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. This then signals how dominant Strider's slider is as it has a PutAway percentage of 33.8% and a 57.0% Whiff percentage. Furthermore, the slider is being thrown 34.1% of the time and making up 124 out of his 250 strikeouts, which constitutes why Strider is so efficient with this pitch and can rack up the Ks.

Conclusion

To summarize, by investigating the statistics page on Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant of Spencer Strider's 2023 season and career as a whole, it becomes easy to see why he is so successful at striking batters out. His fastball-slider combo presents itself as a dual-edged sword that Strider can go to in any 2-strike count to catch the batter looking or whiffing.

Catch him in action tonight as he takes the mound with the Braves against the Phillies at 5:40 PM CT.